Threats to the Amazon, a call to think outside the box

Henry Arellano Peña

http://unperiodico.unal.edu.co/pages/blog/detail/amenazas-sobre-la-amazonia-un-llamado-a-pensar-fuera-de-la-caja/

I used to have a math teacher who would say to me, "if you want to get superb proof and consequently a good outcome, you must always think outside the box. Following this premise, I obtained what I consider one of my best achievements, the first doctoral thesis laureate in the history of the biology department at the National University of Colombia, an achievement that has allowed me to share some of the knowledge that I have about climate change, as well as the results of its replica in the Colombian Amazonian region.

Six years after that doctoral research, I consider that my teacher's gift should be used for more, in such a way, that through the ingenious truth we can confront, and perhaps revert to, one of the biggest dangers that face South America and indeed the Colombian territory: the adverse effects of climate change.

Two papers published in the Science Advances journal have caught my attention in the last few months. They have shown us a global scenario about the variability of the data regarding the world temperature caused by climate change. The study has presented the results of the calibration from the climate records available from 1850 until the present (2018) and was used around 37 mathematical models to simulate the variability of the planet's temperature since 2100, extending the results until 2300 and relate these results with the available global economic information.

The conclusions of that study are discouraging, not only because the most adverse effects will be reflected on the developing countries, but also because it is predicted that the region with the highest rise in temperature will be the northwestern region and the Amazon central. The authors warn about the imminent drop in the soil moisture that will force the region to bear with a limited water regime dominated by the shortage, an imbalance in the evaporation process and the plants' moisture, and consequently an additional cause for the economic and social imbalance of the territory (Bathiany et al. 2018).

The second paper, very related to the last and previously published as an editorial note, warns about a maximum permitted area for deforestation in the amazon that should not exceed 20 to 25 percent of the original coverage (according to different sources, that number has already exceeded both digits and is around 17 percent). At that point, the water connection between the Andes, the Amazon, and the Atlantic will have become unsustainable, given that close to half of the system's water comes from the regulated feedback processes from the ecosystem systems in the area, this is again thanks to evaporation and transpiration phenomena. (Salati et al. 1979, Lovejoy & Nobre, 2018).

Considering the above, it is worth reflecting on the increase in the deforestation of the Colombian rain-forests, especially in Caqueta, Putumayo, and the Guaviare. For example, regarding the latter, at the start of 2019, it was reported that in only ten (10) days, 24 fires destroyed more than 2.600 hectares.

It is essential to note a mutual relationship between the evaporation variables, increase in temperature, environmental offer, change in land use, degradation, deforestation, and natural threats of greenhouse gases. To better understand the latter, I present one of the discoveries about the percentages of greenhouse gases taken from my doctoral work in 2012.

Figure 1 shows – to the left – each of the components calculated in 2010 (in 2018, the official advances in this respect are kept proportional) that generate greenhouse gases according to the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC), we realize that the generation of energy and transport are the human activities that make up the most significant percentage of the total amount of greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere by humankind.

Change of land use (deforestation and degradation) registered data between 1996 and 2010 shows us that this component's percentage was found between 14 and 15 percent, creating a record value in 2000 with 18.2 percent.

Regarding the carbon quantification component caused by deforestation in the tropics, it is registered between 10.49 and 10.3, passing through a value of 18.3 percent. Some authors indicate that this value was closer to 20 percent. With the outcomes obtained from my doctoral dissertation, I found that only through the concept of a better method for the quantification of forests carbon that introduces the biological distinctiveness and morphological differences of vegetation, without considering the bias that exists in the majority of cartography in tropical countries to estimate deforestation and degradation or other phenomena of internal ecosystem dynamics, this value would find pinpointed between 26.15 and 32.6 percent. The latter, for sure, places tropical deforestation as the leading cause of the greenhouse effect and climate change, as it would exceed the calculated amounts for transport and power generation.

Essentially, as a result of tropical degradation and deforestation, there would be three scenarios due to maintaining the new range between 26.15 and 32.6 percent constantly. The first would be functional if the rest of the greenhouse gas compartments were well measured; this would imply that the quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should be greater than it is currently reported (In 2021, everything seems to indicate that this is the scenario).

The second would be functional if the amount of carbon remains the same. For such a scenario, the agents responsible for greenhouse gases different from tropical deforestation and degradation would be poorly measured, which means that they should report lower values than those officially registered, which would confirm deforestation and degradation as one of the leading agents accountable for generating greenhouse gases. The third possibility is that both situations present unmeasured variables, implying uncertainty regarding the causes of greenhouse gases.

Figure No. 2. The scenario takes from Bathiany et al. 2018 where we can appreciate the region that is going to be undergoing a considerable increase in climate change events in the next 50-100 years

In spite of the fact that there is still no final answer to these questions; however, below is a new scenario which will also incorporate the exact climate change, I can safely claim that, as a result of the change in the water regime due to an increase of deforestation and degradation, the effects of the phenomenon on the Amazonian region will be even worse than those already predicted.

The above obligates me to make an urgent call to move from the defense through decrees, declarations, law bills, agrees and delimitation that thicken the already abundant Colombian regulation, to implement different innovative and rigorous economic models, based on the region's primary resource, the proper use of its mega biodiversity.

It is urgent to achieve, in the short term, a new technological development thought outside the box. In order to do so, one must forget much of the technologies developed in the temperate regions; also, of the foreign examples that dictate to us what to do, and it is necessary to start developing our technologies, the tropics must develop their way to cope with the problem.

Most of the indigenous communities present in these territories must face, in addition to the onslaught of different interests wanting the considerable mineral resources covered still by preserved ecosystems, the increase of forest fires, and the change in the water regime of their soils, which why they will require new and novel mechanisms to face these new problems. In other words, society and the indigenous communities cannot just wait for the central government's decisions. In this respect, it is fundamental that these variables that induce the ecosystems' changes be included in national commitments to reduce deforestation. Although it is necessary to remove the current sources of deforestation caused by traditional transforming agents, it is imperative to incorporate this new indirect agent that is currently increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Because the environmental supply controls the population growth, the preserved territories with low deforestation rates should be protected from this enormous threat, and for them, this aspect must be considered in the national commitments. According to the current reference levels needed in the registry system to cope with climate change, these regions will remain unprotected for some regulatory payment schemes as environmental services, a situation whereby the region requires an unconventional technological development that will certainly go against the new model. Finally, it is crucial to demystify that the danger of land-use change only affects the areas near the deforestation centers related to the agricultural frontier in Colombia.

Bathiany, S. V. Dakos, M. Scheffer and T. M. Lenton. 2018. Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. Sci. Adv. 2018;4:eaar5809

Lovejoy T.E. & C.Nobre. 2018. Amazon Tipping Point. Sci. Adv. 2018;4:eaat2340

Salati E., A. Dall 'Ollio,E. Matsui & J.R Gat.1979. Recycling of water in the Amazon, Brazil: an isotopic study. Water Resour. Res. 15,12501258.

https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/medio-ambiente/la-mala-hora-de-la-amazonia-articulo-741543